The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday warned that global business tensions, continuation of uncertainties and increasing the likelihood of Britain leaving the European Union is “uncertain” to reduce the power of the 2020 global economy without any agreement.
Trade disputes weaken investment and weaken industrialization, and the IMF urged countries to avoid using tariff to resolve their differences.
In its quarterly update of the global economic point of view, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut 0.1 percent of its global outlook in this year and next April, while growth in 2019 is expected to reach 3.2 percent and in 2020 by 3.5 percent. .
But the report said that the alarm can worsen the situation by playing alarm.
IMF economist Geeta Gopinath told reporters, “Global development is slow and unstable, but this should not happen because some of these things are subjective.”
In a news conference in Santiago, he said, “The mobilization of the global economy is affected by the long-standing uncertainty in politics, as the recent trade between the United States and China continues in spite of tensions,” Britain is likely to get out of the European Union has gone. “Chile.
Gubinath warned that next year’s recovery was “risky” because “about 70 percent increase depends on the improvement in the performance of the emerging markets and development economies, and therefore is highly uncertain.”
However, at the center of most business tensions, the US has seen one of the rare improvements in the report, where it has received a short-term boost from strong economic growth in the first half of the year.
The International Monetary Fund increased its US GDP forecast from 3 percent to 2.6 percent for the year 2019, but due to weak demand, partly due to trade dispute and tariff, “slowed the whole year.”
By 2020, the US economic growth rate is expected to slow down to 1.9 percent.
China, which is the main target of American business action, is already facing downturn.
The report says, “The negative effects of tariff increase and weak external demand have increased the pressure.” A sudden slowdown in China is a major threat to the global economy.
In the report this year, China’s growth was reduced by 10 points and then 6.2 percent and 6.0 percent.
Avoid policy flaws
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that there is a lot of “potential motivation” for the situation, to change in a quick negative, in which there is a possibility of putting more US tariffs on China or European vehicles, as well as to exit the UK Levels and many have higher levels of credit. Of countries
Gubinath reiterated the IMF account, which shows that the combined effect of the tariff imposed last year and potential tariff between May and the United States and China has reduced the global GDP by 0.5 percent by 2020.
The latest approach was again full of a downgrade, with small downgrades for Germany and Japan, but with a huge reduction for Brazil, Mexico, Russia, India and South Africa – the countries that followed the 2008 financial crisis There were engines of global development.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has once again stressed that solving the problem of uncertainty remains the most prominent issue for the global economy, and said that governments should avoid “political errors” that are “emotion, development and Can create serious impact on job creation. ”
The report says, “Countries should not use tariff to target bilateral trade balance,” it is believed that “on the basis of business dispute rules, there may be more depressing symptoms with the interval of multilateral trading system.”
President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Shi Jinping agreed in June to improve their trade enmity. Senior officials from Washington and Beijing have made two phone calls in recent weeks, but no date has been scheduled.